Positive SAM trend as seen in the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM) future scenarios.

Polar regions are among the most affected areas by the current global warming. In the Southern Hemisphere (SH), impacts of a warmer climate include decrease in sea-ice extent, changes in oceanic and in atmospheric circulation. Recently, some of these impacts were reinforced by the positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). SAM is the dominant mode of variability of the SH extratropical climate and manifests as a "ring-shape" regular pattern of atmospheric mean sea level pressure (MSLP) with opposite sign between mid and high SH latitudes. Over the last three decades, SAM has presented a positive trend, and some studies associate it to stratospheric ozone depletion and to an increase in greenhouse gases concentration. As this debate is still open, climate models constitute useful tools to understand the SH variability in future scenarios. Here we use monthly MSLP outputs from the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM) to examine SAM temporal and spatial behavior in future climate scenarios compared to the historical period. Our results for the BESM simulations suggest that the mean spatial pattern of SAM does not change with global warming, but an increase in the radiative forcing may reinforce positive SAM values obtained for the historical period.

Tropical South Atlantic influence on Northeastern Brazil precipitation and ITCZ displacement during the past 2300 years.

Recent paleoclimatic studies suggest that changes in the tropical rainbelt across the Atlantic Ocean during the past two millennia are linked to a latitudinal shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) driven by the Northern Hemisphere (NH) climate. However, little is known regarding other potential drivers that can affect tropical Atlantic rainfall, mainly due to the scarcity of adequate and high-resolution records. In this study, we fill this gap by reconstructing precipitation changes in Northeastern Brazil during the last 2,300 years from a high-resolution lake record of hydrogen isotope compositions of plant waxes. We find that regional precipitation along the coastal area of South America was not solely governed by north-south displacements of the ITCZ due to changes in NH climate, but also by the contraction and expansion of the tropical rainbelt due to variations in sea surface temperature and southeast trade winds in the tropical South Atlantic Basin.